Open Forecasts
Where our calls are live,
and how they are doing.
Every note we publish carries dated forecasts with probabilities attached, and the specific evidence that would prove us wrong. This is the running record. It changes when the forecasts resolve, not when we feel like writing something.
Why we publish it this way. A forecast without a date and a probability cannot be graded, and a forecast that is quietly reworded after the fact is not a forecast. Every call here is fixed at publication. When one resolves against us it stays on this map in red, because a record that only ever shows green is marketing rather than evidence.
The notes